There is an old adage
FIGURES DON'T LIE, BUT LIARS KNOW HOW TO FIGURE
WHEN I CAME HOME LAST NITE AND SAT DOWN TO EAT MY SON ELLI CALLED TO WISH US A GOOD YEAR, BUT STARTED BY SAYING " DAD DON'T LOOK AT THE POLLS.
The polls this year represent a real danger to the public if they are grossly inflated for the Obama camp.
Many people who see Obama ahead by 8-10 points will assume the race is over and vote for the winner. Republicans may be disheartened and stay home.
Of course some people who were doubtful about voting might go definitely to the polls because of anger.
Now the polls traditionally use the turnout in previous elections to calibrate the polling results.
This year all the polls are using the huge black ,youth and Hispanic turnout in 2008.In fact no one believes that there will be such a huge turnout this year However by using 2008 turnout, the polls are skewed to Obama by 6-8 points.
Therefore there is a new web site UNSKEWEDPOLLS.COM which follows the Rasmussen approach Today they have Romney up 7% based on the national polls.
RASMUSSEN TODAY CALLS THE NATIONAL POLLS EVEN.
DICK MORRIS HAS WRITTEN ABOUT THIS, AND PREDICTS A ROMNEY VICTORY
we shall see in a few weeks.
