Friday, July 28, 2006

Sadness ! 7/29/06


This morning in the Talmud class that I teach to mature senior physicians in Good Samaritan Hospital (Suffern NY ) those feelings were palpable.
Israel is not winning the war!
Israel is running out of time to correct her strategic errors.
If the war ends with only a mile or km buffer ,and Hezbollah's rockets intact, Israel will have lost its deterrence for future conflicts.
Israel tried to win this war on the cheap, pitting 2,000 ground soldiers against an equeal number of entrenched well armed and well motivated opponents.I learned enough in my officers training, and through general reading as well as listening to the talking heads on tv,to understand that the ratio for an attacking army in these circumstances should be closer to 10:1 and not 1:1. Airpower alone,as we learned in Korea and Vietnam ,and as Israel has previously experienced, has its limitations.

I personally am concerned regarding the makeup of the Israeli security cabinet.Among the seven are:
Eli Yishai of Shas -Military experience ?
Min of Defense Peretz-military experience ? ( anti-war in his previous life )
PM Olmert -military experience- military correspondent
Shimon Peres
Ophir Pines-Paz

Mofaz and Dichter have solid backgrounds

Perhaps its time to add a non-political element to the group such as Uzi Arad of the Herziliya think tank,( among others) with an understanding of the geo-political considerations.It seems that the facts on the ground are beyond the grasp of Olmert and Peretz .

Caroline Glick in her JP column last nite raises the question of whether the IDF generals should be replaced because they are using tactics designed for Gaza ,here in Lebanon.
Secondarily when the fighting ceases, someone must be resposible for the poor intelligence of the IDF regarding Hezbollah.

Finally, I fear that if Israel fails to win (release of prisoners, cessation of rockets,and a major deployment of Lenanese units to the South with NATO or EU troops that will disarm Hezbollah and prevent resupply from Syria and Iran ),the next war in 4-6 years could be nuclear with Iran truly involved.This war has diminished the ability of Israel to unilaterally destroy the Iranian nuclear facilities , if that becomes necessary.