Wednesday, October 06, 2010

2010 Senate Outlook

Elli Ganchrow writes:

It us now becoming quite clear that 2010 is going to be a big year for Republicans across the country. Based on the latest polls that have been released it appears likely that the House will switch to Republican control. Normally when the House switches parties, then the Senate switches parties as well. Will this trend hold this year? According to RealClearPolitics, based on the latest polls, as of today the Republicans would pick up 9 seats (Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Indiana, Arkansas and North Dakota). A 9 seat pick up would put the Senate in a 50-50 tie and would allow the VP to break ties. It is possible that any of these five races could break for the Republicans and give then a majority: 1. Washington 2. New York 3. California 4. Delaware 5. Connecticut. Of these 5 races, I would put Connecticut at the top of the list of possible upsets. Linda McMahon, the Republican candidate, is running an excellent campaign with hard hitting ads. My guess is that the Republicand take both houses of Congress.

One final point: if the Senate ends up in a 50-50 tie, Sarah Palin will have some explaining with respect to her endorsement of Christine O'Donnell in Delaware. The Delaware primary (which turned after Palin endorsed O'Donnell over Castle) went from a slam dunk Republican win to a probable loss. If this prevents a Republican majority we will know who to blame.