Sunday, January 30, 2011

An analysis of Egypt- Israel

Events in Egypt,Tunisia,Yemen and Jordan have both short and long range effects on Israel and of course the US.
The Arab League for the most part has shown its impotency,and for all purposes dead.The yelling for years that the Arab-Israeli conflict is the source of ME instability has finally proven to be a silly accusation.Poverty,lack of jobs ,political persecution by dictators,corruption and inflation are what the demonstrators are yelling about.Rigged elections, supported by the US are coming home to roost.
In essence Abbas used the Arab League and Mubarak as a crutch to support his lack of negotiations.The crutch is gone,and Abbas may join Mubarak as his people learn more about his willingness to compromise-from Wikkileaks.
The "peace process" is dead .Israel can only depend upon itself,and must have proper safeguards at the Jordan River, Gaza border and the Golan-Lebanese borders.Compromise is silly,and yields no security gains.
The left wing in Israel, alrady decimated will further wither,as no Israeli could consider the Arabs as "partners" in a true peace.
If Sulemein and the military can come out on top, that would be the best solution to saving the Israel-Egypt peace treaty.He has been tough on infiltration from Sinai.
El Beredei,helped the Iranians hide their nuclear program, and now that the Muslim Brotherhood has endorsed him,that is double trouble.
King Abdullah is sorrounded by Palestinians, and is weak to begin with.He is vulnerable,except the army is loyal.
The integrity of the Suez Canal is not at present an issue,nevertheless the price of oil and gold will rise.-Obama will be happy about the rising price of oil,as he hopes that will drive us away from hydrocarbons.Hopefully we will respond with greater domestic drilling.
Just as Carter lost Iran, Obama a foreign policy neophyte will be known as the one who lost Egypt. HILLARY CLINTON WAS RIGHT IN THE CAMPAIGN CRITICIZING HIS FOREIGN POLICY EXPERIENCE.
Finally,Israel may have to devote more funding to the IDF, to beef up the potential future conflict with Egypt.