Monday, November 03, 2008

Election Eve

Elli Ganchrow writes:

The day many of us have dreaded for a number of weeks is upon us and if the polls are to be believed, it will not be a happy night. How did we get to the point that Republicans are facing a rout?

1. John McCain- I thought his nomination would prove disastrous and it appears I have been proven correct. His campaign has reminded many of Bob Dole's (and that is not a compliment). His failure to make Rev. Wright a campaign issue is simply inexplicable. The campaign's focus on his previous service to America showed that the campaign hadn't paid attention to the previous 4 elections in which George H. W. Bush, Dole, Al Gore and John Kerry tried to make their service a focus of their campaigns and each lost to a non-veteran. People respect military service but that is not a reason (in itself) to vote for someone. Campaigns need themes, ideas and focus and John McCain's had none.

2. The Economy- Who would have thought that we would be winning the Iraq War, oil would be $65 and McCain would still be losing. His gamble in suspending his campaign and vowing not to debate unless the bailout was passed (but then debating anyway) was a boneheaded move which backfired on him.

3. Money- It is quite ironic that the namesake of McCain-Feingold (one of the worst pieces of legislation of the last twenty-five years)is losing because his campaign is being badly outspent. Getting rid of contribution limits would allow both sides to raise sufficient funds to run equivalent camapaigns and allow candidates to focus on things other than fund-raising.

4. The Media- As pointed out in an earlier blog, you could confuse the New York Times and CNN for Obama media outlets.

5. Congressional Republicans- Their performance during the bailout debate, in which they claimed that they voted against the first bailout bill because Nancy Pelosi insulted Bush in her speech, was reminscent of Gingrich's claim that he shut down the government because Clinton insulted him by not letting him off the front of Air Force One. The Gingrich ploy didn't work out well for the Republicans in 1998 and tomorrow night figures to be a long night for House Republicans.

6. New York State Republicans- What was that? You didn't know that there were any Republicans left in New York. Starting tomorrow night, the last bastion of Republican power in New York may disappear if the Republicans lose the State Senante as expected. The Republicans in New York have not prepared for the future and now are stuck with a complete dominance by Democrats statewide.

As I have written here before, anyone who loves Israel and cherishes her security should be very nervous about an Obama presidency.

So what are my predictions for tomorrow? I believe the Presidential election will be much closer than the polls suggest although I believe Obama will end with 51-52% of the vote. I believe Obama will lose Florida and Virginia but win Ohio, Pennsylvania and Colorado and ultimately the Presidency with 298 Electoral Votes. I believe the Democrats will end the night with 58 Senate seats (although Republicans will maintain Norm Coleman's seat) and will lose 23 House seats. They will also lose the New York State Senate.

Lets hope I am wrong and a miracle happens.